D2Football.com SAC Column: Week 9

Now it's just a mess in Super Regional 2.

Then #2 Wingate lost.
Then #4 North Alabama lost.
Then #5 Tusculum lost.
Then #7 Benedict lost.
Then #8 Albany State lost.

Here is where things now stand in the region.

1. Delta State 6-1
2. Valdosta State 6-1
3. Wingate 7-1
4. North Alabama 7-1
5. Arkansas-Monticello 6-2
6. Newberry 4-3
7. Albany State (Georgia) 5-2
8. Tusculum 5-3
9. Carson-Newman 5-2
10. Catawba 4-3

In the South Atlantic Conference, the only three teams that are officially done in this race are Mars Hill, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Brevard.

While Wingate may appear to be in the driver's seat with a 7-1 record, it is simply not so. Carson-Newman has a schedule consisting of playing at Brevard, home to Wingate, and at Tusculum. The Eagles are going to the playoffs. With only two losses and a very favorable schedule left, their odds are somewhere between 99.9 and 100.0%.

Wingate must play Catawba at home, on the road to Carson-Newman, and home to Mars Hill. If the Bulldogs lose two of those games, they will be yesterday's news.

What are we going to do with Newberry, Catawba, and Tusculum? Each of these teams have three losses. Newberry has the head to head with Catawba, and Catawba has the head to head with Tusculum.

One more loss by any of these teams will end their season. If both Catawba and Newberry win out, Newberry will get the nod. If Catawba and Tusculum win out, Catawba will get the nod.

Newberry does not have to worry about outside games as of this moment. Catawba absolutely needs Newberry to fall to Tusculum. The Pioneers need the Indians to lose while winning the rest of their games.

While it is important for the SAC to have Arkansas-Monticello lose to North Alabama on the road, a possible fourth loss to a team like Harding would make things much clearer.

Even if Arkansas-Monticello finished with three losses, I would find it extremely unlikely that the Boll Weevils would finish above a possible second SAC team. UAM has a strength of schedule index that is rated 92nd in the nation, while SAC teams have much stronger SOS numbers. Newberry and Tusculum are tied for third while Catawba's schedule is 34th. To grant the Gulf South Conference four postseason bids by way of a fourth team with the same number of losses, but a much lower SOS index is something I cannot see happening.

Week Eight Recaps

Actual Score: Newberry: 32 Wingate: 21
Timmy's Predicted Score: Newberry: 27 Wingate: 21

Although Newberry's passing game struggled mightily (only 76 yards) against a solid Bulldog pass defense, it was Newberry's ability to play smash-mouth football to secure the win. The combination of Tharry Salley and Gerald Legree on the ground produced well over 200 yards rushing and helped control the clock.

JD Moore was under fire the whole night by the Newberry front four, resulting in two interceptions and eight quarterback hurries. Moore did throw for 266 yards and three touchdowns in the losing effort, while feared running back Nelson Woods was held in check for 75 yards on 20 carries.

Actual Score: Carson-Newman: 62 Lenoir-Rhyne: 21
Timmy's Predicted Score: Carson-Newman: 38 Lenoir-Rhyne: 21

A 35-7 halftime score, in Carson-Newman's favor, indicated the large gap between these two teams. The Eagles out-rushed a fellow option-oriented SAC team 363 yards to 180 yards, and they capitalized on all five red zone opportunities.

Seven different Carson-Newman players rushed for touchdowns. Is that some kind of record? Guinness, get to work on that.

Alex the Great (He played better than good) had an impressive 80-yard touchdown scamper early in the first quarter and did not see action after halftime.

Actual Score: Catawba: 37 Tusculum: 35
Timmy's Predicted Score: Catawba: 24 Tusculum: 14

Some may say that Indian quarterback Pat Dennis out shined Corey Russell on Saturday.

In his second career start, Dennis threw for 357 yards and a pair of third quarter touchdowns to lead the Tribe past a high-flying spread Tusculum team.

Russell's arm should have been in a sling after the afternoon was over, throwing for 402 yards and four touchdowns in the loss.

Five Catawba sacks combined with 121 rushing yards by Jamelle Cuthbertson enabled the Indians to double the Pioneer's time of possession 40:00 to 20:00.

Actual Score: Mars Hill: 28 Brevard: 14
Timmy's Predicted Score: Mars Hill: 42 Brevard: 21

Give credit to Brevard, they keep fighting each and every week.

They fought Tusculum tooth and nail last week, and they did the same this Saturday against the Lions.

Quarterback Trey Wilborn did not complete a pass all afternoon, but he did lead the Tornados with 90 yards on sixteen attempts.

The one-two power rushing attack of "The Georges" Washington and Stripling boasted 165 rushing yards and two scores. Stripling in the fourth quarter churned out six consecutive carries, followed by four straight rushes by Washington in a scoring drive.

Week Nine Previews

For the first time this season I went undefeated in picking South Atlantic Conference games. All it took was new batteries in my magical Magic 8 Ball. My prediction record is now 33-11.

#16 Carson-Newman (5-2, 3-1) at Brevard (1-6, 0-4)

October 25th 2:00 PM ET Weather Forecast: 60 degrees, showers, 7 MPH wind, 60% chance of rain

Brevard is playing much better than it was early in the year. However, they no longer pose a threat in the air.

The Tornados did not complete a pass, but still hung tough with Mars Hill in a 28-14 loss. This says that while Brevard may be one-dimensional, they feel its possible to compete in this manner.

This matchup of Brevard and Carson-Newman will closely mirror the Eagles' contest with Lenoir-Rhyne last week.

Brevard will not pass as much as LRU, which even then was only eleven throws.

The line of scrimmage will be thoroughly controlled by C-N on Saturday. There is always a chance of coach Ken Sparks' team coming out sluggish and sloppy, but it isn't likely since the Eagles know they are playoff bound.

Quarterback Alex Good will involved in several big plays in the first half, something similar to the Concord game early in the season. Backup signal caller Joel Statham can expect to test the airwaves in mop up duty and account for some hard runs.

Tailbacks Buck Wakefield and Tony Richardson could average over 15 yards on the ground for the second week in a row. Quite an impressive feat.

Of course, with Brevard presumably stacking the box on Saturday, C-N wideouts Reggie Hubbard and Otis Miller can be home run threats on deep streaks or simple screen patterns.

Brevard wants to establish the option game with sophomore Trey Wilborn as the quarterback. The question is if the Tornados pass on Carson-Newman when they load up the box?

The answer? Check below.

Carson-Newman: 63 Brevard: 14

Catawba (4-3, 2-2) at #23 Wingate (7-1, 3-1)

October 25th 1:30 PM ET Weather Forecast: 70 degrees, showers, 9 MPH wind, 60% chance of rain

This is one of two South Atlantic Conference games that the rest of the region will be watching with extreme interest.

Catawba is coming off a 37-35 win against Tusculum. The Indians have now found an identity in sophomore quarterback Patrick Dennis. He has so many weapons at receiver in Antwan Strong, Brandon Bunn, Geron Bryant, Eric Morman, Brian Terwilliger, and tight end Grayson Downs.

Wingate must bounce back from its set back to Newberry last weekend. If the Bulldogs lose this weekend, their playoff hopes are virtually gone. Mainly because Carson-Newman still looms on the schedule.

The Bulldogs were not able to run against Newberry's defensive line with Nelson Woods and Patrick Pinchinat.

Just like last week, this game will come down to WU quarterback JD Moore. He will be going up against possibly the best defensive line in the league. The Indians are expecting the return of defensive lineman Julian Hartsell, who did not play last week.

The Tribe was able to put pressure on Tusculum quarterback Corey Russell late in the contest to decide the game. Moore will not be able to avoid half of the sacks in the same manner Russell did.

Woods will have great difficulty against the defensive line as well. No team has been able to run on Catawba this season.

Wingate's biggest question mark may be its defensive line. The Bulldog defensive line allowed 316 yards on the ground to Lenoir-Rhyne, 248 yards to Newberry, and 213 yards to Tusculum.

Catawba's running game features senior Jamelle Cuthbertson, a tailback that has ran for at least 100 yards in his last four games.

Make it five straight.

Catawba: 28 Wingate: 14

Newberry (4-3, 2-2) at Tusculum (5-3, 2-2)

October 25th 2:00 PM ET Weather Forecast: 60 degrees, showers, 7 MPH wind, 40% chance of rain

The health of Tharry Salley's knee is not known as of the release of this column. Regardless, fellow running backs Gerald Legree and Josh James will need to play even better this week to win.

Tusculum scored 35 points and Corey Russell threw for over 400 yards and suffered a loss.

The Pioneers have a score to settle with Newberry after the Scarlet Gray have beat them three times in a row in games decided by five, four, and three points respectively.

Tusculum is due to win a close game this year. Coach DeBusk's team has two losses on the road by four and two points.

Quarterback Corey Russell is simply too good to end his Pioneer career without a win against Newberry.

Newberry head coach Zak Willis has decided to give Eric McCollom the keys to offense as of now. The senior signal caller did his job by taking better care of the football in their big 32-21 win over Wingate last Saturday.

Tusculum receivers Ryan Tallent, Nate Binder, and Calvin Britt will catch plenty of passes on homecoming Saturday.

Newberry has played two road games this season. Both were losses, a 24-10 loss at Midwestern State, and a 27-6 loss at Mars Hill.

Newberry's lack of a passing game compared to Tusculum's attack will prove to be the difference.

Tusculum: 34 Newberry: 24

Mars Hill (5-3, 2-2) at Lenoir-Rhyne (3-5, 1-3)

October 25th 7:00 PM ET Weather Forecast: 53 degrees, partly cloudy, 9 MPH wind, 40% chance of rain

Mars Hill's offense has played much better since its loss to Catawba to start off the conference season. Running backs George Washington and George Stripling are still the premiere focus of head coach Tim Clifton's attention, but they have received more help.

Quarterback Ricky Spradling has been able to connect with star wideout Tyrea Allen and Frankie Waters in the past three games.

The Lions must be ready to play from behind like they did last week. Brevard scored the first touchdown of the game at Meares Stadium, but the ground game of Washington and Stripling wore down the Tornados.

Lenoir-Rhyne will also concentrate on the running game. Quarterback Justin Sanders has the ability to make enough plays to beat Mars Hill. The problem isn't L-R's offense. It will be inability of coach Fred Goldsmith's defense to stop to run or deep pass off of play action.

This one will come down to turnovers, a problem Lenoir-Rhyne fans are too familiar with this season.

Mars Hill: 38 Lenoir-Rhyne: 27